On Thursday, January 29, one of the most intriguing Western Conference matchups of the NBA week takes place as the Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Target Center. The game is officially scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET, with national streaming available on Prime Video — giving fans a prime-time showdown between two of the league’s most dynamic stars.
The latest odds have the Thunder favored on the road, with most books listing OKC around -6 to -7.5 on the spread and a moneyline near -260, while Minnesota sits around +215 as the underdog. The total has generally landed in the 224.5–225.5 point range, reflecting the offensive talent on both sides.
Advanced models project that the Thunder will win more often than not, with simulated outcomes often favoring OKC’s superior defense and efficient scoring balance. One model’s confidence in a Thunder victory clocks in north of 60%, even while suggesting the Wolves could hang around within the spread. That said, Minnesota’s home-court edge and motivation to respond after earlier losses in this season series — which stands tied 1-1 — keeps this game well within reach for the Wolves.
Key matchups to watch include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the Thunder offense and Anthony Edwards shouldering Minnesota’s scoring load. Recent ATS trends also give bettors something to consider: the Timberwolves have historically performed decently at +6/+7, while the Thunder’s road cover rate around these numbers has been less consistent.
In summary, the advanced model leans toward Oklahoma City on the ML, but with the Timberwolves covering the spread as a compelling alternative pick — especially if Minnesota can control tempo and capitalize on fatigue.
