2026 Australian Open men’s semifinal picks, best bets, odds: Expert backing Sinner with tennis predictions

The 2026 Australian Open men’s singles final will be a dream match-up between world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and 10-time champion Novak Djokovic, after both players emerged victorious in thrilling five-set semifinals on Friday, January 30, 2026.

Semifinal Results

Both matches were intense, marathon encounters that defied some expert predictions.

  • Carlos Alcaraz (1) def. Alexander Zverev (3): In a five-hour, 27-minute epic, Alcaraz won 6-4, 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (3-7), 6-7 (4-7), 7-5 to reach his first Australian Open final.
  • Novak Djokovic (4) def. Jannik Sinner (2): Djokovic orchestrated a stunning upset, coming back from a set down twice to beat the defending champion 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.

Final Match Details

The highly anticipated final is set for Sunday, February 1, 2026, at Rod Laver Arena.

Expert Picks & Bets Recap

Prior to the matches, the general expert consensus leaned towards a Sinner vs. Alcaraz final, with Sinner as the overall tournament favorite.

  • Sinner vs. Djokovic: Experts, including Jose Onorato, largely backed the in-form Sinner, who had won their previous five encounters. However, Djokovic produced a vintage performance to save 16 of 18 break points and stun Sinner.
  • Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Onorato’s bet on the match going “over 35.5 games” proved successful as the match became the third-longest semi-final in tournament history.

Updated Winner Odds

Following the upsets, the odds have shifted dramatically for Sunday’s final.

PlayerOutright Winner Odds (Approx.)
Carlos Alcaraz11/10 (approx. +110 moneyline)
Novak Djokovic9/1 (approx. +900 moneyline)